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<!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD XHTML 1.0 Strict//EN" "http://www.w3.org/TR/xhtml1/DTD/xhtml1-strict.dtd">
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<html xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml"><head><meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=UTF-8" /><title>Be Newsletters - Volume 5: 2000</title><link rel="stylesheet" href="be_newsletter.css" type="text/css" media="all" /><link rel="shortcut icon" type="image/vnd.microsoft.icon" href="./images/favicon.ico" /><!--[if IE]>
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<![endif]--><meta name="generator" content="DocBook XSL Stylesheets V1.73.2" /><link rel="start" href="index.html" title="Be Newsletters" /><link rel="up" href="volume5.html" title="Volume 5: 2000" /><link rel="prev" href="Issue5-15.html" title="Issue 5-15, April 12, 2000" /><link rel="next" href="Issue5-17.html" title="Issue 5-17, April 26, 2000" /></head><body><div id="header"><div id="headerT"><div id="headerTL"><a accesskey="p" href="Issue5-15.html" title="Issue 5-15, April 12, 2000"><img src="./images/navigation/prev.png" alt="Prev" /></a> <a accesskey="u" href="volume5.html" title="Volume 5: 2000"><img src="./images/navigation/up.png" alt="Up" /></a> <a accesskey="n" href="Issue5-17.html" title="Issue 5-17, April 26, 2000"><img src="./images/navigation/next.png" alt="Next" /></a></div><div id="headerTR"><div id="navigpeople"><a href="http://www.haiku-os.org"><img src="./images/People_24.png" alt="haiku-os.org" title="Visit The Haiku Website" /></a></div><div class="navighome" title="Home"><a accesskey="h" href="index.html"><img src="./images/navigation/home.png" alt="Home" /></a></div><div class="navigboxed" id="naviglang" title="English">en</div></div><div id="headerTC">Be Newsletters - Volume 5: 2000</div></div><div id="headerB">Prev: <a href="Issue5-15.html">Issue 5-15, April 12, 2000</a> Up: <a href="volume5.html">Volume 5: 2000</a> Next: <a href="Issue5-17.html">Issue 5-17, April 26, 2000</a></div><hr /></div><div class="article"><div xmlns="" xmlns:d="http://docbook.org/ns/docbook" class="titlepage"><div><div xmlns:d="http://docbook.org/ns/docbook"><h2 xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" class="title"><a id="Issue5-16"></a>Issue 5-16, April 19, 2000</h2></div></div></div><div class="sect1"><div xmlns="" xmlns:d="http://docbook.org/ns/docbook" class="titlepage"><div><div xmlns:d="http://docbook.org/ns/docbook"><h2 xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" class="title"><a id="Gassee5-16"></a>Numbers, numbers, numbers</h2></div><div xmlns:d="http://docbook.org/ns/docbook"><span xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" class="author">By <span class="firstname">Jean-Louis</span> <span class="surname">Gassée</span></span></div></div></div><p>
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As expected, the stock market roller coaster generated its share of
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messages in my inbox. We have a rule not to comment on our stock's price
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and if there ever was a good time to stick to that rule, it is now.
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Commenting on the market's ups and downs is also problematic, but I can
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still enjoy the Talmudic exercise of commenting on the comments. As we
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know, Microsoft was fingered as the trigger for the "correction". If
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Microsoft suffers from Judge Jackson's decision, the entire high tech
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industry must be affected, so said the haruspices. First, Microsoft isn't
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likely to be materially impacted any time soon. Psychologically, perhaps.
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But for material consequences, the appeals process gives them a fair
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chance of making their case last a while-- that's the system and they
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have a right to use it like everyone else. Second, let's assume for a
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moment Microsoft is impacted. They were a Monopolist and are now
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prevented from abusing their position. What does this mean in practice? A
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monopoly situation means, among other things, higher profits than in a
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more competitive situation. Conversely, curtailing the MS monopoly leads
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to a transfer of profits from the company's coffers to their competitors'
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income statements. I don't see how Microsoft being restrained harms the
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high-tech industry, <span class="foreignphrase"><em class="foreignphrase">au contraire</em></span>.
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</p><p>
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Analysts quickly figured out the absurdity of the "explanation", and came
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up with a better one. The forecast for PC sales: lower. If memory serves,
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that gloomy prognosis came from Goldman Sachs. As a result, Microsoft's
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profits would be lower and the entire industry would be affected by a
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lower rate of PC shipments, or growth thereof. That's better logic, but
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it doesn't explain a 30% or so "correction" for the NASDAQ. These guys
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should fess up. The herd moves as a herd moves. The Microsoft truck on
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the neighboring road backfired loudly, and this time, the nervous herd
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went in the direction everyone agreed it would go some day. All
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discussions after the fact, including this one, are just that.
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</p><p>
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But the fun doesn't stop there. Sun announces robust profits because the
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Web consumes a vast amount of their iron. Yes, but all these dot coms are
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finally being as they are: hopeless cash burners engaged in the marketing
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and advertising version of MAD, Mutually Assured Destruction of cash
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reserves. That's the new conventional wisdom. Unfortunately, The New York
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Times and The Wall Street Journal publish stories showing some Web
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retailers starting to make money--not all dot coms are beyond.com, or
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salvation.
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</p><p>
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It gets better. Now Intel is announcing robust profits, that's the past
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quarter; and capital investments, that's for robust demand in the future,
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a mere ten days after the gloomy forecast for PC industry and it's other
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overlord. Both stories can't be right and I look forward to the updated
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bulletin from the Microsoft haruspex. But a colleague of mine says I'm
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short-sighted. Both Intel and Goldman Sachs are right. The explanation is
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under my nose says my friendly critic, this is the post-PC era and
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appliances will more than take up the slack. My friend is clearly analyst
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material.
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</p></div></div><div id="footer"><hr /><div id="footerT">Prev: <a href="Issue5-15.html">Issue 5-15, April 12, 2000</a> Up: <a href="volume5.html">Volume 5: 2000</a> Next: <a href="Issue5-17.html">Issue 5-17, April 26, 2000</a> </div><div id="footerB"><div id="footerBL"><a href="Issue5-15.html" title="Issue 5-15, April 12, 2000"><img src="./images/navigation/prev.png" alt="Prev" /></a> <a href="volume5.html" title="Volume 5: 2000"><img src="./images/navigation/up.png" alt="Up" /></a> <a href="Issue5-17.html" title="Issue 5-17, April 26, 2000"><img src="./images/navigation/next.png" alt="Next" /></a></div><div id="footerBR"><div><a href="http://www.haiku-os.org"><img src="./images/People_24.png" alt="haiku-os.org" title="Visit The Haiku Website" /></a></div><div class="navighome" title="Home"><a accesskey="h" href="index.html"><img src="./images/navigation/home.png" alt="Home" /></a></div></div><div id="footerBC"><a href="http://www.access-company.com/home.html" title="ACCESS Co."><img alt="Access Company" src="./images/access_logo.png" /></a></div></div></div><div id="licenseFooter"><div id="licenseFooterBL"><a rel="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/" title="Creative Commons License"><img alt="Creative Commons License" style="border-width:0" src="https://licensebuttons.net/l/by-nc-nd/3.0/88x31.png" /></a></div><div id="licenseFooterBR"><a href="./LegalNotice.html">Legal Notice</a></div><div id="licenseFooterBC"><span id="licenseText">This work is licensed under a
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